Population | Economy | Travel | Birds

Businesses

With the exception of perhaps the major antiviral drug firms, there would be few other businesses that could escape the impact of a global pandemic. Those industries expected to sustain the greatest impact are the tourism, hospitality and public transport sectors of the economy, followed by the various industries that rely on these sectors for business. The key problems a pandemic triggers lie significantly on consumer reaction to a large-scale outbreak. Public alarm will radically reduce the frequency of restaurant visits, public transport usage and above all, long distance travel.

Business losses stem not only from reduced customer consumption however, but also from staff shortages and medical compensations that follow. In cases where employees need to consistently travel during a pandemic, vaccinations could also be required for those traveling (once vaccines are available).

Economic Loss

The World Bank earlier provided a US$800 billion forecast for the average economical loss worldwide during a global pandemic scenario. The figure was attained from assumptions and comparisons to the 2003 SARS outbreaks in Southeast Asia, which caused a 2% loss to the region's total gross domestic product over the epidemic period. Modeling an approximation based on this precedent, 2% of the world’s annual GDP average roughly amounts to US$800 billion.



For reference, listed below are the estimated profit losses of various countries caused by SARS in 2003. However, in an actual pandemic, the outbreak period could well be longer and influenza is also much more infectious than the SARS virus.

Country	Loss caused by SARS Outbreak (in billions)
China	17.9
Hong Kong	12
Singapore	8
South Korea	6.1
Taiwan	4.6
Thailand	4.5
Malaysia	3
Indonesia	1.9

Prevention Costs

Funds exhausted on avoiding the spread of an outbreak once a novel virus emerges, will often amount to a considerable figure in itself. Enforcing the necessary measures would for instance, include government compensations for mass cullings and possibly the closing down of national borders to avoid virus breakout. Aside from losses due to trade bans, government health costs incurred will also be a key expenditure during the outbreak. A pandemic on the same scale as the 1968 Hong Kong Flu is expected to produce a US$181 billion medical bill for the US government.

Poultry cullings in Southeast Asia has already cost an estimated US$8 - US$12 billion (as of April 7 2005), following 140 million poultry slaughters and will undoubtedly have increased since then. To ensure necessary preventive measures are nonetheless undertaken during and prior to a pandemic, the World Bank has set aside US$500 billion as emergency funding that can be loaned to poorer countries in a novel virus outbreak. In African and Southeast Asian countries, the two regions where virus mutation is most likely to occur (as a result of the tight living conditions between birds and humans), the money may prove crucial to halt disease spread.

Vaccine Costs

Although no human vaccines have yet been produced against the current H5N1 strain, large amounts of funding have been piled into research toward effective vaccines for both humans and birds. The WHO estimates that US$500 million will be spent in the next three to four years alone, on developing avian influenza vaccines and producing antiviral drugs. The Swiss manufacturer of Tamiflu®, Roche, has already boosted its sales rate considerably over the past year, with the global anxiety over bird flu constituting the main reason. The third quarter of 2005 saw to £3.8 billion worth of sales for Roche, following a £180 million Tamiflu® order placed by the British government.

Recently also, the Chinese government approved the use of a poultry vaccine against H5N1 in late December 2005. 14 billion vaccinations are expected to be issued within China, yet at only 20% of the usual cost for existing inactivated vaccines available at this point in time. The vaccines are anticipated to provide even greater immunity against bird flu, yet simultaneously reduce the expenses of vaccinations. Avian influenza monitoring and bird vaccinations in the East Asian region (particularly Vietnam) cost an approximated US$300 million, according to the FAO.