Population | Economy | Travel | Birds

Airline Losses

In a pandemic scenario, country borders/airports may have to be shut down at some stage to control outbreaks. As a result of such measures, tourism industries throughout the globe will sustain colossal losses – not only from travel cancellations to infected regions, but also as a result of global alert toward long distance travel in general.

During the SARS outbreak in 2003, Hong Kong’s leading airline Cathay Pacific registered an estimated HK$1.24 billion loss during the first 6 months of the year. However, SARS only infected a total of approximately 8000 victims, with a 1 in 10 mortality rate. An actual pandemic is expected to bring a death toll in the millions and may last over a period of several years. The impact it would cause is impossible to estimate at this stage, but would nonetheless be immense. The overall loss incurred to airlines globally during SARS, was given at $6.5 billion by the IATA (International Air Transport Association) in 2003. Comparing this impact with that of a pandemic, the level of damage one could exert on the airline industry alone is worryingly vast.

Spread via Travel

The Spanish Flu pandemic in 1918 was responsible for almost 40 million deaths and caused worldwide havoc, lasting for a total of 18 months. Considering the expediency of long distance travel today and the considerable increase of population since 1918, much greater potential exists for virus spread in today’s society than in the past. If the Spanish Flu was capable of global contagion (an estimated 400 million people) in a time dominated by train and boat, then modern air travel is the very means that will accelerate virus spread exceedingly. The most daunting possibility would be a lack of timely response in detecting a novel virus emergence.

Travel Warnings

At this point in time, no travel warnings have been issued on the basis of bird flu outbreaks. Human cases have been reported throughout Southeast Asia and H5N1 outbreaks among poultry are evident in 26 countries, but no lasting human-to-human transmissions have been reported.

However, travelers are generally advised to minimize contact with local birds in infected regions, as virus contraction has typically been known to result from immediate contact with sick birds. Ordinary flu shots are also recommended in some instances, to avoid simultaneous contraction of avian influenza and seasonal influenza, if contact with bird species is inevitable. It is also recommended that travelers monitor their health for approximately 10 days after returning from overseas, particularly if contact with poultry occurred.